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3 Predictions For Mississauga Real Estate Market In 2016-17

3 Predictions for Mississauga real estate market in 2016-17

Update* – Please check out my 3 Predictions for Mississauga Real Estate in 2017 where I specifically talk about what could happen in the Mississauga real estate market in 2017.

The Globe and Mail had this prediction for 2016 and 2017 in regards to the Toronto real estate market
:

The soaring cost of home ownership will finally begin to weigh on the Toronto housing market. Housing starts should drop by 5 per cent next year and fall another 10 per cent in 2017. Much of that will come from fewer new detached homes, with multifamily construction making up almost two-thirds of new homes under construction in 2017. Existing home sales, which are on track to hit 100,000 this year, will drop to 87,500 by 2017 as more prospective first-time buyers find they’re priced out of the market.

What does this mean for the Mississauga real estate market in 2016-2017?

While the news focuses on Canada as a whole, the GTA is an entirely different beast. Therefore, you can’t lump it in with the rest of the country and you need to analyze it separately.

When looking at GTA real estate market we know that the level of demand in Mississauga is not at the insane levels as it is in the hyper-competitive Toronto real estate market. However, Mississauga is one of Toronto’s closest neighbours and most attractive alternative options especially for first time buyers and young families and demand here is still extremely high. 

A Quick Look at the Numbers

Average Price of Detached Home Q3 2015:

Toronto = $1,019,759
Mississauga = ~$800,000

Note – At the end of October 2016 (this post was originally written in Dec 2015), the average price for a detached home in Toronto was over $1.3 million and was ~$950K in the 905. 

How quickly are homes selling in Mississauga?

Detached = 19 DOM (days on market)
All Other Home Types = 23 DOM


The trend continues as the average DOM (days on market) continues to fall in Mississauga and the average price continues to rise. Will that hold true next year as well or are we looking at a correction in the new year?

 

3 Predictions for Mississauga Real Estate Market in 2016 and 2017

1) Prices Will Go UP

Ok, I know this isn’t the boldest of predictions, but for years everyone and their mother has been predicting a housing crash. And every year passes and it just isn’t coming.

So, the question on everyone’s mind every year is…is this the year? Well, sorry to break it to you but no it’s not.

Prices Up, But By How Much?

Update: As of the end of November 2016, year to date gains across all segments equals a whopping 14.6%. So, what will the increases look like in 2017?

I believe that prices will continue to rise rapidly with a further tightening of available listings. I do think that there will be some other factors that will help control prices compared to 2016’s robust growth, so I’ve pegged growth in Mississauga at about 8%-10% in 2017.

With that said, in 2017 prices could also be affected more significantly by…

 

2) There will be another significant mortgage rule change

In 2015, the Liberal government moved to make the most significant change in mortgage conditions since 2012 when the amortization rate was dropped from a maximum of 30 years to 25 years for houses purchased with less than 20% down.

Starting February 15, 2016 the minimum downpayment has changed from 5% to 10% on the portion above $500K. 

Dirty Math Time

A $600,000 home at 5% would normally be a $30,000 downpayment. With the new rules it would make it $35,000 down. That’s $500,000 at 5% ($25K) + $100,000 at 10% ($10K).

Update on Prediction

As predicted, in October 2016 the federal government made a significant mortgage rule change which led to a flurry of activity in the year-end market.

The “Stress Test” as it is called, is now applied to all high-ratio mortgages (any purchase with less than 20% down). This means that anyone with less than 20% down HAS to qualify at the benchmark interest rate (currently 4.64%) versus just the rate their lender offers them (which could be in the 2.4%-2.6% range).

This change came into effect very quickly and left buyers scrambling to close transactions. The banks responded the next month by slightly raising their interest rates for the first time in a long while.

What kind of impact will this have on the market?

Many in the industry were quick to praise the government while others stated that it wasn’t enough to help cool the markets in places like Toronto and Vancouver.

My personal opinion? It won’t be as significant as people hope it might be and I don’t believe the government intended it to be that a huge of an impact at first. I think they’re planning to gauge the impact and set themselves up for another, larger change in 2017. 

3) A significant announcement will be made regarding interest rates

There’s no doubt that historically low interest rates have largely fueled the real estate market in Canada over the past decade. And we’ve heard at times that the rates will change with speculation occurring largely after the latest round of mortgage changes in 2012. However, clearly nothing came from that.

With the first increase of the benchmark rate in years comes speculation that interest rates could rise soon.

But, don’t expect to see that happen in 2016. In fact, it looks like we’ll see rates possibly lowered even further and we’ll also see the growth of the private lending market as the big banks tighten their rules and who they lend to.

Update* – No interest rate changes came in 2016, however, banks began to slowly increase rates due to the mortgage rules changes. In early December 2016, the BoC again did not increase the benchmark rate.

With private lending joining the fold, it should push their rates lower which could keep things low for the foreseeable future. However, come the end of 2017, if things remain largely the same, I expect to see a rather significant step towards increasing rates.

Some of this will largely depend on what kind of shape our loonie and economy are in at that point, but if things are more stable then expect something big to happen. Either way you’re going to want to buy now. Don’t put the move off any sooner as prices are not coming down. 

Mike Santos

I’m Mike. I created this website. I’m a real estate sales representative, but I’m a consumer behaviourist at heart. I like to understand what makes people tick and find out what’s really important to them. I value honesty and integrity over everything. I’m fiercely competitive and loyal and view myself more as a consultant than salesperson. In my free time I’m a registered sportsaholic and TV junkie.

This Post Has 77 Comments
  1. Hi Mike,

    What is the date this was written?

    What are your thoughts today about these views,
    May 25, 2016?

    Thank you,
    Michael

    1. Hi Michael,

      This was written in late December 2015 in order to try and give a true prediction of the market in 2016. And, so far, it’s pretty close to bang on. Through Q1 2016 prices are up, overall, 8.7% compared to Q1 2015. Between Q1 2014 and Q1 2015 that percentage was 8.9%. Now, keep in mind these are snapshots of the market over a 3 month period. Prices generally take their biggest jumps, year over year, in the Spring and then trend downwards as we close the year.

      The other thing to keep in mind is that these numbers include condos which don’t appreciate as quickly and bring the average numbers down. If you’re simply looking at the Detached homes market you’re looking at a 10.2% increase year over year from Q1 2015 to Q1 2016. Quite the difference right?

      Right now the freehold market has continued to be characterized by a low supply and high demand leading to a very competitive marketplace for buyers. Multiple offers and homes selling WELL over asking is the norm. And I don’t believe that trend will slow down unless there is a significant change in the mortgage rules or interest rate. Prices will slow down a bit as the year goes on but overall we’re seeing numbers right in line with my predictions.

  2. You mention Q1 ’15 to Q1 ’16. Would you have any data from Q3 ’15 to Q1 ’16? If not actual because it is too recent, at least anecdotally from what you are aware as price trends? Particularly in Port Credit Mississauga and Lakeview area of Mississauga. I ask because the so called Lakeview Rejuvenation Plan seems to be having some impact on expectations and related pricing?

    1. Hi Partricia,

      In Lakeview from Q3’15 to Q1’16 the average price for a detached home increased 9% to $811,791. That falls pretty much in line with growth around the city. Anecdotally, people seem to understand that there is lots of room for growth in Lakeview and all of the older homes there are being bought up and either renovated or completely torn down with custom homes being built. You’re right, the next big phase of growth in Mississauga is happening south of the QEW and with listings plunging nearly 30% this past month across the GTA, the price is being driven even higher for homes under the $1 million mark.

      As for Port Credit detached homes, the growth won’t be as exponential as the average is already at nearly $1.3 million. From Q3’15 to Q1’16 there wasn’t much of a change, but there’s always a small sample size there and only so much demand for those homes (based on affordability).

  3. Hello,

    I own a townhouse condo in Meadowvale and I purchased a condo that will be ready November 2017, my mortgage is due November 2016 and I’m not sure what would be the best move, if to sell now and rent until my condo is ready, or renew my mortgage to 2017 and wait until then to sell,
    I would be very grateful for any comment/input on this situation,
    Thank you,
    Claudia

    1. Hi Claudia,

      It’s definitely better to look at your mortgage options first as pre-construction condos can often be delayed. It might be on track for November 2017 now, but with 18 months to go it’s hard to predict it will be ready for exactly then. I would discuss mortgage options with your bank/broker and then sell once you know for sure when your occupancy will begin next year. Congrats on the purchase! Which project did you purchase at???

  4. Hi Mike,

    What your thoughts on houses in Mississauga around Erin Center and 10th line area. Prices have gone out of control here . A house on the corner of that intersection sold for a record price of $1.3 million (3000 sq ft) and I am sure a year ago it would have sold around $1 million . Do you think this is being caused by foreign buyers? Will prices continue to rise in such areas as Mississauga becomes more dense? What are your predictions for 2017? Should owners in these areas be worried about price fluctuations ?

    Thanks

    1. Hi Zaid,

      Prices have increased dramatically in many places in Mississauga, but this area and type of home in Churchill Meadows is certainly an interesting case. These kinds of homes (3500sq.ft+) are rare in Mississauga outside of Lorne Park and the rest of the more “luxury” areas south of the QEW. Those homes are well over the $2 million mark and are few and far between. But, Churchill Meadows has a decent supply of these homes in what, I agree, was a more affordable segment as early two years ago. So, for people that are looking for that kind of space, they gravitate towards this area because of its relative affordability (in comparison to the alternatives in Mississauga).

      Now, when it comes to the “foreign buyer” we have to be careful how we define that. The media would like us to believe that there is someone sitting in an ivory tower abroad just purchasing homes in Mississauga like they would candy. But, in my experience, the vast majority of purchasers are at the very least landed immigrants that work and live in Canada. What I have experienced with buyers of my own in this area is that often two families will come together to purchase the home and live together. They decide they each can’t have the type of home that they want separately, so they work together to afford the bigger home. That’s not always the case, there are still many single-family purchasers of course but I would hesitate to blame all of the GTA’s problems on foreign buyers. I personally feel their importance has been overstated and there are many more Canadians with a lot more cash than the average person realizes.

      What will happen beyond 2017? I can’t tell you that unfortunately because no one really knows. No one really knows what will happen next month. All we can do is look at the information and try our best to stay ahead of the curve. As I stated in my article, I believe prices will continue to rise but I don’t believe it will keep the pace that it has this past year. I also don’t think owners of real estate in these areas need to worry about price fluctuations. Even if we were to see a market correction prices would have to fall further than at any time in history to even get back to price levels from a few years ago (which is highly unlikely).

      Mississauga will continue to grow but there will come a point where things begin to level off. When that time comes no one is quite sure, but this fall will certainly be an interesting indication of what will happen come 2017 and beyond.

        1. Hi Zachary,

          I dedicated a separate post to just my 2017 predictions in December and you can read it here – http://gtawestliving.com/predictions-mississauga-real-estate-market-2017/

          Clearly, even that prediction ended up being rather conservative in hindsight. Going into the new year, things seemed like they would at least somewhat ease up, but it hasn’t in the slightest. I’m still of the belief (and I was back then as well) that the Federal government would do SOMETHING in 2017 that would have some kind of cooling down effect, but that it will happen later on in the year. It will likely be too late by then to stem 2017 prices which look like they will be in the 20%+ range across all homes by end of year.

          In 2018, it remains to be seen what will happen but predictions become a bit easier to tackle once things have played out in the Fall market.

  5. Hi,
    I have a semi detach in Churchill meadow. I brought it November 2014. Now I’m thinking to sell it in this July or refinance to get money to buy other property( I can get out 100k) and will sell this house in spring 2017. If I refinance I have to pay all fee again. Im confuse to sell it or keep it. I’m sure I can not keep this house for long . Because I’m invest . Could you give the advice. I’m so confuse .sophie

    1. Hi Sophie,

      I’ll contact you directly as I would need some more information before I could give you the best advice possible.

  6. Hi,

    A comment on Credit Pointe area would be much appreciated.
    It’s a nice enclave that seems to hold a lot of value.
    Is it worth it to buy 1.1 M 3,100 Sq Ft home in that area. The lot is big and home a little dated, but has a new roof, furnace, Ac etc etc.
    Is there a chance the price may go even higher in 2016 in Credit Pointe?

    1. Hi Chris!

      Credit Pointe is one of my favourite spots in all of Mississauga. It’s hard to comment on specific listings without seeing them, but any kind of luxury pocket in North Mississauga is going to continue to stay attractive well into the future. I would never hesitate to recommend clients to purchase there.

      In terms of prices, historically we normally see prices peak in May then come back a bit over the summer and then get back to near May levels in September and October. So while it’s likely we’ve seen the peak point of prices AS AN AVERAGE in Mississauga, Credit Pointe is too small a sample size to say that prices can’t get higher. It will really depend on the homes that go up for sale in the coming months. An average gives us a good indication of what’s happening in the city or community as a whole, but doesn’t necessarily predict what will happen next.

  7. Hi,
    Regarding Mississauga prices for Mississauga in my opinion will keep rising for many reasons :
    1- There is no inventory —> while there is MORE and more demand.
    2- There is no spaces in GTA for build and no permits .
    3- people are moving from other provinces to Ontario where job index is good .
    4- number of Immigrant coming for GTA is high.
    5- Low Canadian dollar against USD, is another reason for real stat investment (if sold 1CAD=1USD that’s mean profit 25% if we ignored the price increase !!!)
    6- Low interest , for sure not in 2016 , unknown if it is in 2017 yet .
    7- do you this the government will allow any price collapse !! good to see the 15 year history . if we assumed the process may collapse do you think is it the houses owner issue !! every body will be under the hummer ( companies , investment companies , Funds , Banks , house taxes !! ….)
    8- is this prices are high for the most safe and secure country around the world with strong economy indicates and , go to UK, USA … and see the numbers , actually we still fat than Vancouver !
    just compare it as apple to apple , you will discover that still we are far and prices will keep going up and I will not be surprised if the prices will rise faster than expectations , and this is what others see when they pay for the these prices.

    do you think if the central bank rise the interest rate 0.25 after 2 years , it will make difference ? Nothing

    Regard
    SAM

  8. Hi Mike,
    I’m interested in hearing/reading your views on Erindale. I live in a detached raised bungalow just off the Credit Woodlands and Burnamthorpe. What are the market values for raised bungalows vs other homes in the neighbourhood. Should I sell and buy another house or take the power line of credit and buy another house as investment?
    Curious homeowner of 5 years!

    1. Hi Joanne!

      I love Erindale! I really enjoy just driving around the area around the UTM campus and Huron Park is one of my favourite niche neighbourhoods in the city. It’s a very desirable and hot neighbourhood in Mississauga right now.

      As for your questions, it’s a bit difficult to answer because the homes vary so much in size and level of renovation. However, to try and give you a general range you’re looking at anywhere from $600K-$850K for a raised-bungalow (averaging closer to $725K at the moment) and generally somewhere between $700K-$950K for a 2-storey (if we look at homes under a million in that area).

      The question I always ask people when they are debating between upsizing and buying an investment property is: Are you ready to be a landlord? If you can honestly say yes to the latter then I always think it makes sense to increase your real estate portfolio in a city like Mississauga. We’re getting to a point where detached homes will simply not increase in supply, so getting in now is going to handsomely pay off in the long run. I’m sure you can see that in your own purchase from 5 years ago! If you don’t want to be a landlord you can always hire someone to take care of the property for you but that’s not really profitable when you only have the one property to manage.

      If you have any more questions relating specifically to your property feel free to reach out to me at mike@gtawestliving.com. Thanks for stopping by!

  9. Any thoughts on Milton and your predictions for 2018? When are you predicting a crash and how badly will it affect places like Milton and Mississauga?

    1. Hi Saad,

      I will cover my 2018 predictions likely at the end of 2017. No one truthfully will be able to tell you anything with 100% certainty about what’s going to happen over 2 years from now. I also don’t think there will be the kind of crash that people have been calling for and anticipating for the better part of two decades. You have to keep in mind that prices have been increasing in the GTA with no setbacks for pretty much 20 years now. There was a slight blip for a few months in 2008 fueled by the speculation in the US, but the market recovered very quickly and Canada was one of the few countries that climbed out of that recession almost instantly. The fallout from that is an entirely different topic for a different blog, but in terms of real estate everything has been increasing at a rapid pace since.

      Will it continue forever? No, it can’t. But, I think anyone who thinks or who claims that there will be a crash is being disingenuous. I’ve said this before in other comments and in my blogs that I believe at some point we will see a rise in the interest rate but that doesn’t look to be coming at all in the next 18 months. And even when we do see a rise in the interest rate, I don’t believe we will see a crash. The rise will come slowly and we will see a bit more balance in the market but what we’re seeing is becoming closer to the new normal. I believe we’ll get to a point where prices more slowly rise but crazily enough there is still lots of room for prices to go all around the GTA and beyond.

      In the grand scheme of things a city like Mississauga is going to be in good shape. It’s now entering a new phase where density will be its main focus and creating a fully functioning and independent city is its main goal with projects like the Hurontario LRT and revitalization of the Lakeshore on the horizon. This area will continue to grow and be prosperous well into 2018 and beyond. And even if we do see some catastrophic event occur 18 months from now, how much would prices even fall by? 30%? That would be one of the worst falls in Canadian real estate history and it would still only bring us back to 2012-2013 levels by that point!

      My thoughts for Mississauga would be echoed with Milton in that it will still be a desirable place for young families and professionals looking for a reasonable commute into the city. Milton is a different case in that there is still plenty of land to expand and they haven’t even scratched the surface of possible growth when it comes to density. That’s a discussion in likely another decade or two though.

  10. Great comments Mike . Need your expertise here . I have a house at Willowbank – Tomken area and Im thinking to put it for sale and of September . But down the street we have 2 schools elementary and high school John Cabot . Since schools are only walking distance is it a good selling point for families with kids ???? If yes is it better to wait till spring 2017 , when families with kids looking TO move ???

    1. Hi,

      Thank you for the kind words. First, let me say that’s a gorgeous area of Mississauga and another one of my favourites. Are schools within walking distance a selling feature of a home? The truthful answer is that people want to have a school close but ideally it’s not right across the street from them – especially a high school. An elementary school is preferable and having both across the street does create quite a bit of traffic in the morning. If people have the choice, they would much rather be on a quiet cul-de-sac with the school a block or two over. So, it will really depend where exactly you are on Willowbank Trail to determine how much impact the schools would have on your market value.

      However, we are definitely at a point where that would be further down the priority list for people. Just being able to snag a detached home in that area is a feat in and of itself, so I wouldn’t personally be too concerned about the timing of the market. You certainly don’t need to wait until the Spring to sell. Families are looking to move any time a home becomes available and the Fall will continue to be a hot time for real estate in the Mississauga market.

  11. What is your opinion about price for fully renovated 2800 sq ft home home on Willow bank ? I did not see any homes for sale lust spring . The closest to me house 2300 sq ft on Sunnyside st was soled for $ 999000 in May .

    1. Hi again,

      It would be really difficult to determine an exact market value for you without more information. I will contact you privately to discuss. Thanks again for the comments!

  12. Hello Mike,

    I’m looking into investing in condos in Missisagua either around square one area (Parkside) or another area adjacent to Hurntario St. I’m a newcomer to Canada, and I’m not experienced with the real estate market.
    In both projects advance required is 20% divided into 4 payments, completion date is around June 18 and October 17 for the two projects.
    Should I really go for Condos? I preferred that as I’m still building my credit history and mortgage options wouldn’t be the best for me now.

    1. Hey Ahmad,

      Realistically pre-construction condos are your best option to gain entrance into homeownership in Canada if you’re a newcomer with no credit and/or work experience. It’s very difficult for the average newcomer to obtain a mortgage or pay the 35% minimum downpayment that’s required to purchase a resale home. Is purchasing a Mississauga condo the absolute best investment out there in real estate? No, it’s not. But, with current appreciation rates hovering around 2.5%-3% on most buildings around the Square One area it’s also a very realistic way to enjoy the benefits of homeownership and begin to build equity in a new country.

  13. Good Morning
    I got a job in Mississauga and I am looking for a townhouse in around 500,000 to 600,000…I am very scared that after I make the purchase and put most of my life earning in it the market will drop in 2017 and after.
    Do you think renting is better? do you think the housing will drop?
    Please advise

    1. Hi Rab!

      I get this question very often and I can say without a doubt that you should purchase a home if you have a good downpayment (I believe in at least having 10%), solid employment and an emergency fund.

      I don’t believe the housing market will crash in 2017 or beyond and there are so many reasons for that:

      1) Interest Rates – they are still historically low and there is absolutely no indication they will be moving at any point in the near future

      2) Lack of Supply for New Homes – In the GTA we cannot readily build more and more houses because of the GreenBelt Act. That restricts the development of new homes meaning that the homes we have now have to satisfy the current population (which continues to grow exponentially). The only way to satisfy extra demand is by building condos which still do not satisfy the average family and as a society we haven’t quite yet adopted the family condo lifestyle (we’ll get there very soon though).

      3) Immigration – The GTA continues to grow and more and more immigrants that do come here are educated and wealthy and are also looking for homes. This coupled with a much more educated and wealthy 20s/30s generation means that demand is at an all-time high for homes.

      4) Toronto aka The Financial Centre of Canada – this is where all the jobs are and where people want to work and live. Young people are increasingly coming to the downtown and immigrants choose here more than anywhere else in Canada to settle. Toronto is going through its maturity right now and prices will only get more expensive like they did in places like New York, London and Paris. This is Toronto’s modern day renaissance. As a result, all of the suburbs will benefit from this growth as people try to find affordable housing around the city.

  14. Hi, we have a semi in Old Meadowvale, that we purchased on the first day that the builder opened in 1999. I would like to upgrade to a detached. I am very picky. All the houses I am looking at are in multi-bide situations. Should I purchase before I sell or should I sell and then purchase. Worried that the market is hot right now and if I wait till next spring, I might not get the price I want for my current home. Also not sure if I should upgrade the kitchen and stay another year or two. Just not sure if right now is the right time to buy and sell.

  15. Very informative, thanks for providing great info. I have a 3000sqft detach house at Tacc drive missisiiauge, opposite to a children primary school. I have booked an upgraded house the expecteced completion/closing is june, 2017. Prices on this street are getting higher and higher. What you suggest, shall I sale and go on rent for 8 to 10 months or can sale next year April or May with still higher or similar price. Please give your valuable advice.

    1. Hey Irfan,

      If you were upgrading your home through resale I would say buy/sell now, but if you’ve already bought pre-construction I would suggest to hold. I think we’ll see more of the same going into the Spring next year and by that time you will have a better idea if the timeline for your new home is accurate.

  16. Hello Mike,

    What do you think about the current market and what are you predictions for 2017? We have a 3000 sq ft house in Milton that we could easily sell for mid $900’s. Is it worth selling it now, start renting for a couple of years until everything settles down a bit and than buy our dream house?

    Best regards!

    1. Hi Bob,

      Thanks for the comment. I will be giving my predictions for the 2017 year at the end of December with some in mind for 2018 as well. Personally, I never think it’s a good idea to sell, rent and wait for the market to crash. For anyone that’s been doing that over the last 15+ years they sure are out of a lot of money!

      My advice to you would be the same as I give to everyone. If you believe you’re ready to make the move, both from a financial and lifestyle perspective, then don’t hesitate as there are no current indications that anything is going to change with the current real estate landscape.

  17. I really enjoyed this article, as I had just recently purchased a detached house, around 2200 sq ft in the East Credit area where St. Marcellinus Secondary School is (heard that’s a good athletic school). I bought the house with my bf, and we are 25 years old. While many people were shocked and happy for us, his brother and a friend keep ragging on us for buying it right before a catastrophic crash. I will say that we put down $300k on a $840k house, and we also both have better-than-average-paying-careers with 99% chance of making 6 figures each person within the next 2-3 years. His brother had a fight with him last night saying we did not use our brain and bought it to keep up with the trend (not the case) and the market is bound to crash 30-40% very soon. No matter how I think about it, I truly don’t believe it with so many facts behind my logic, but I guess that 1% of me does fear it also as we invested our savings since graduation along with some family help. Do you think we made a huge decision too quick?

    1. Hi Tina,

      Congrats on your purchase! I personally wouldn’t worry about what others think of your purchase. It looks as though you have a great downpayment that allows you the flexibility to enjoy other aspects of life besides paying a mortgage. On top of that you look to both have very stable careers. Keep paying down as much as you can now and the rest will take care of itself.

      Also, keep in mind that people have been screaming about a 30%-40% market crash for a very, very long time. My personal opinion is if those people really feel like they are right and that’s the case then they should put their money where their mouth is and invest in markets that fade the housing market. Then we will really see the depth of their argument.

      Until that point, try to enjoy your new home and good luck in your careers!

  18. Hi Mike – this is one of the best real estate article I have read in many months. Great job.

    I and my wife are first time home buyers and have been looking for a town home / semi for the last 6 months. Unfortunately we are loosing out in the bid war. We have lost 8 houses in bid war.

    Today, government has announced 4 major changes to the housing rules.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/four-major-changes-to-canadas-housing-rules/article32223470/

    Will this bring down the prices in the market ?

    1. Hi Rik,

      Thanks for the kind words. I was planning to write an article about that very topic this week. Stay tuned as I can go into greater detail but in the grand scheme of things I don’t think it will bring prices down. It may help cool them off a bit though.

  19. With recent developments in Vancouver (15% Foreign buyer tax) & Ottawa plugging minor tax loopholes, there is a general consensus for a 15% foreign buyers tax to cool Toronto housing markets. These high prices in future, will only drastically affect the Canadians who have taken mortgages to pay for these inflated property purchases. Mortgage foreclosures will be soon be the talk of the town since average Canadians are 167% in debt. Government has to chose weather they are on the side of Canadian home owners at large or want to make short gains with hot money from foreign buyers. It is certain, that a housing crash is eminent, however timely government intervention can determines the degree of fall & it’s overall repercussions.

    1. Hi James,

      You could be right, but people have people calling for an imminent housing crash for most of the past 15 years (and before that as well). So, it’s difficult to feel confident of apocalyptic predictions. You’re right though in the sense that the government plays a key part in helping to maintain a stable market environment. There are a lot of factors at play and the housing market is not an isolated industry. There are many things for the government to consider at both the domestic and international level. For now I continue to coach the approach of buying what you can reasonably afford and save up for those downpayments.

  20. Mike, I’d be interested in your thoughts on Nobleton in 2017/18.

    I just bought a resale house in King country estates that appears (given sale values recently) has already increased from when I closed the deal in April.

    The house will now get several upgrades now that I have it as I feel this area is as yet untapped in terms of true market value.

    I think this because of a few factors

    1. The price of Kleinburg and Vaughan just below us continues to rise into the 2.5 to 3m mark for a similar size and style home. (I paid less than half that for my house)

    2. New communities continue to be built which is indicative of ongoing demand

    3. City expansion is invariably north as east and west options become more difficult and priced out of majority of market reach

    I agree that interest rate and mortgage rule changes may have some level of impact but in the high end/luxury home market here over a 3-5 year time horizon I’m still anticipating a net increase in house prices YoY above or in the range of 3 – 5% due to the points above.

    Is my thesis totally off base here?

    1. I think you’re definitely on the right track. As far as new development goes the North is king right now.

      1. Ha!

        Good pun!

        Thanks Mike. I’ve been trying to find some forecast information relative to price projections for the area but other than builder websites, it’s all very general to the gta.

        Any advice on information options specific to my area?

        1. Hi Daniel,

          Forecast information is very difficult to find in real estate and especially at such a micro level. I very much doubt you will find anyone who will have done forecast projections for that specific area and if they have they’re likely realtors that work in the area who have created their own.

          The honest truth is that it’s extremely difficult to put together really accurately forecasts because there are so many factors that affect the market and overall buyer confidence. We see the top economists struggle with it and most even admit that it’s practically impossible to predict. It becomes even more difficult at the micro level because the overall health of the GTA market specifically affects all markets. They’re really not isolated at all.

          The best that you can really do as a consumer is study last year’s results and take a look at the overall trends in place assuming that no other factors will markedly change in the next year. Or, if you believe that there will be some changes, theorize as to their impact (but again that’s a difficult game to play).

          I wish I could be of more help but you sound like you’re on the right track, you’re diligent with your research and I’m sure you’ll be well ahead of the crowd when it comes to changes. Keep an eye on the results of the new stress test mortgage rules changes. We could see fixed rates slightly rise in the near future and that may give us some insight as we head into the back half of 2017.

  21. Hi Mike,

    we are in a rock and a hard place. We want to sell but cannot “I believe” due to our daughter in university. We need to downsize and perhaps purchase another property as a rental income… having said that we are looking at selling in about 1 or maybe two years. are we making a big mistake waiting? WE need the equity out of our main home

    1. Hi Maria,

      It’s a bit difficult to answer those questions without knowing more information, but generally speaking if you’re downsizing from your current home, then your current home should outpace the home you downsize into should market conditions stay the way they are.

      Now, in terms of also purchasing a rental property, again that totally depends on the type of rental property. Freehold home where you rent out both floors? Those are really flying off the market and jumping up in price. Two years from now it’ll be a lot more expensive in my opinion. Resale condo? They are definitely appreciating strongly, but nowhere near the same level as freehold and rents are increasing rapidly. They can be a very good investment right now. Pre-construction condo? Can also be a very good investment if you have the capital to invest (at least 20% available).

      I would suggest emailing me directly with more information about your situation. I can be reached at info@gtawestliving.com. Thanks for reading!

  22. Hi Mike,

    What are your thoughts on the Lorne Park area between Birchwood Drive and Lorne Park Rd (Whiteoaks of Jalna area) … Much of a percentage increase?

    Thank you.

    1. Hi Sarah,

      Great area. I love Lorne Park. And, yes, that area of Lorne Park is right in line with the rest of South Mississauga in terms of appreciation which has been huge (greater than 16% in all segments) year over year from 2015.

  23. Hi Mike

    Any predictions for housing prices for 2017, will there be big increases or just the ordinary minimal…hopefully not decrease, as i plan to sell my detach home in meadowvale area.
    Or should i just keep my home and lay low till another boom…when will that be ???

    Thanks

  24. Mike, sorry to dampen your spirits, but your predictions for 2017 is utterly wrong. Huge correction and downward prices will be witnessed in Mississauga / Toronto / Vancouver & all hot property bubble areas. US Fed & banks already raising interest rates & trend to follow, govt in a frenzy stream of measures but cannot plug the hole, individual debt burden increases & watch out for global clues.

    1. Hi Glen,

      My spirits are always up no matter how the market is “performing”. My job is simply to provide knowledge for my clients and service them to the best of my ability.

      As for your prediction, your reasons for doomsday are a bit vague (I appreciate the brevity) but it wouldn’t be the first time we’ve heard that before. We shall see…

  25. Hi Mike,

    I’m still not understand why Mississauga detach house price increasing is much less than other city is in GTA like reachmond hill ,new market, withby , oshawa ,…. in 2016.
    I think, this means is better to invest your money in east or north of city of Toronto.

    1. Hi Adel,

      First, let’s look at your claim that those cities outpaced Mississauga in the detached home segment over the past year. We’re still waiting on Q4 data from 2016, but we have Q3 2015 – Q3 2016 available. The numbers breakdown like this (according to TREB stats):

      Oshawa = 31.3% increase in prices, avg price = $499,498
      Richmond Hill = 26.9% increase in prices, avg price = $1,525,394
      Mississauga = 23.5% increase in prices, avg price = $988,677
      Whitby = 21% increase in prices, avg price = $666,711
      Newmarket = 19.6% increase in prices, avg price = $880,452

      So, we have to first debunk your claim. It is not true that all of those cities outpaced Mississauga’s appreciation in the detached segment. Second, you’re claiming that north and east of the city is better to invest your money. Well, are you an investor or are you also considering lifestyle as part of your decision?

      While Oshawa is a fine city, its growth, in my opinion, is more of a symptom of affordability than desirability. You have people flocking to it not because Oshawa is a prime destination, but simply because a detached home can still be had there for under $500K. That, unfortunately, does not exist in Mississauga anymore.

      Lastly, we can see that Newmarket hasn’t outpaced Mississauga, but Richmond Hill has. However, look at the average price. Richmond Hill doesn’t have as many homes as Mississauga does and the ones they do have tend to be very large and, let’s be frank, do house some of the GTA’s most wealthy people. So, if you have $1.525 million to invest, by all means look at Richmond Hill. However, I still back Mississauga as one of the top places to live in the GTA.

      Hope that information helps!

  26. Hi mike, what do you think about Meadowvale?
    Do you see it undergoing a kind of gentrification given the market condition?

    1. Hi Maria,

      Meadowvale is great. It’s one of my favourite neighbourhoods because of the abundance of parks and trails and it has the Meadowvale Community Centre along with an affordable mix of housing and its in close proximity to amenities and highways.

      I’m not sure it will undergo the kind of gentrification a neighbourhood like Port Credit or Streetsville would because it doesn’t have a “downtown”. It’s also not really equipped to have a “buy the land and build custom homes” that some other neighbourhoods in south Mississauga have. With that said, it’s pretty well-equipped to continue to grow nicely as a prime “family” neighbourhood for Mississaugans.

  27. Hi Mike,

    It was nice to read about areas in Mississauga that I am familiar with, like Churchill Meadows. We have lived in a corner house on Longford Drive in Churchill Meadows since it was new. Across the road from a park, no sidewalks so it really does have good curb appeal. We have purchased a larger upgrade new house in Georgetown in the new Double Oak community. We won’t be selling until March next year since we close in June. I must say that I am so nervous about what the market is going to do and am constantly watching home sales in Churchill Meadows. We were thinking about listing in mid-March with a mid-June closing next year. Do most people like 90 day closings or would shorter be better? In your expert opinion do you think things will change negatively between now (Feb 2017) and this time next year??

    1. Hi Debbie,

      In such a strong seller’s market you can demand pretty much any closing date that you want. What I would personally do is wait for confirmation of your closing date from the builder and then list the home. There are often delays with new construction, so I don’t think it makes sense to list until you know for sure you’re moving into the new home. 90 days is a good buffer to have when selling your home. It gives you time to prepare it for listing, sell, and then give you time to move.

      Do I think things will change negatively between now and then? No, I don’t. I’ve been pretty adamant about this on the site that I don’t see the market going anywhere in the foreseeable future. Will it continue at this rabid pace? I’m not sure anyone knows anymore, but there is still so much demand and such a low amount of inventory that I think it would take quite the drastic measure for things to change. And I don’t see that measure coming any time soon.

  28. hello
    we bought a house from the builder and it is going to be ready in one year
    is it smart to sell now and rent for one year
    I am scared the price will go down so I will loose if I don’t
    thanks a million

  29. Hi Mike,
    Thanks for your brilliant insights. You have not talked about condos. I have a 2 bed, 2 bath 945 sq foot condo i papillonlace in Erin mills area , a km from the upcoming New erin mills Go station. Will the better transit. Route have an impact on pricing in our area and what is the average price i would expect for my appartment in march /aprol 2017.
    Thanks

    Sal

    1. Hi Salman,

      As far as I’m aware, the new Erin Mills Go station is primarily a part of the new Mississauga Transitway that helps people commute within Mississauga and connects with Etobicoke. In terms of GO service, I don’t believe it will do any more than connect you to the Square One terminal where you could then head into Toronto (or any other direction serviced at Mississauga’s main hub).

      While that’s a great and needed service, I don’t see it heavily impacting sale prices in the area directly. The biggest things that will affect prices there are the renovation of the Erin Mills Town Centre and the development of new condos in the area. Rather than there just being a couple of standalone buildings and an old mall, the Erin Mills Town Centre is looking to become another option for people outside of Square One.

      And I think we’ve already seen the effects of that in the market. The new Daniels buildings that have gone up have done very well and we’ve seen a very big increase in prices in the area. If I had to give a rough estimate, I’d say that the Papillon Place units are up around the $475/sq.ft mark. Of course, depending on condition, updates, parking etc. the estimate could grow or shrink from there.

      Either way, those buildings have been good investments for the past decade and now with the added infrastructure coming to the neighbourhood, things look in good shape moving forward.

  30. Hi Mike,

    Enjoy reading your informative insights about Mississauga real estate. Love your positive approach. Will appreciate your insight about Georgetown real estate future. Compare to Oakville and Milton Georgetown prices are still reasonable. What kind of growth we can expect there in near future. More over, will it be a good decision to purchase property in Georgetown rather than cities around as it falls in GTA?

    Thanks

    Tuhina

    1. Hi Tuhina,

      Thanks for the kind words. Georgetown will always lag a bit behind places like Milton and Oakville simply because of its location and size. With that being said, real estate growth has still been very robust in the city over the past 5 years.

      Now, is it a good decision to purchase in Georgetown over other cities in the GTA? Unfortunately, that’s a bit of a vague question to answer. There are so many places around the GTA to consider and there are so many lifestyle decisions to factor in. I’ve said many times over the years on this site that I don’t think the #1 consideration for purchasing a home is potential for appreciation. For me, it’s a lifestyle purchase first. We’re homeowners who are contributing to our community and not investors simply looking to stay inside of our home, build up equity and leave. Great communities and cities are built on its people and during times like this I think we begin to lose focus on that.

      If you’re considering a purchase strictly from an investment standpoint, there are certainly other areas of the GTA that have more going for it in terms of development, location, amenities etc. However, Georgetown is a great community that’s beginning to come out of its shell and it’s a definitely a place I recommend people consider. I’ve lived there in the past and continue to have family there as well.

      In terms of what kind of growth we can expect, it’s very difficult to put a number on something like that. But, keep in mind that every city in the GTA is experiencing robust growth, however those parts of Halton Hills have actually seen less price growth than most over the past year. Again, location and amenity-wise, it won’t keep up with other, bigger cities that are rapidly expanding, but I still think it’s a great place to call home.

      1. Hi Mike,

        Thank you so much for your helpful response. Mississauga is our home for last 17 years. City has changed a lot since. Was considering to move to a place little quieter but still commutable to down town Toronto. It is hard to ignore the growth perspective in today’s market. Being so close to GTA hoping for healthy growth of Georgetown real estate market in future.

        1. Hi Tuhina,

          Georgetown is a quieter place and a much closer knit community. It’s still commutable to downtown but obviously it depends on your tolerance for traffic. The 401 is quite far away, but if you have a pretty strict 9-5 then you do have the option of the GO. I wouldn’t have any hesitation moving to a place like Georgetown and I wouldn’t worry about price growth as it’s not as small of a town or as far away as say an Acton or Rockwood which also encompasses Halton Hills.

          Especially the south part of town which in time will continue to expand and be comparable to the newest west parts of Brampton. On top of that, if that megamall ever does get built, Georgetown will have plenty of amenities to look forward to. However, you’ll still be able to find a cozy pocket in town that gives you the quiet you’re looking for.

  31. Hi Mike..

    We recently won the bidding war and bought a 4 bed detached with finished basement in Lisgar area. The house is very pretty and around 2600 sq ft. We paid 1.27 million for it. I am worried about the current market trends. Did I pay way too more for this house?

    Will I be able to make enough equity on this house in next 7 years?

    Can you provide your insight?

    Thanks!

    1. Hi Madhura,

      Did you pay way too much? Wait a month and you’ll have your answer for the current market. Will you be able to make enough equity in the next 7 years? What’s enough equity? That definition is different for everyone. And what you decide to do next (either upgrade or downsize) makes a difference in if that equity really means anything.

      Over the next 7 years no one will be able to tell you with any certainty. I mean, look at 2010…could anyone have predicted where we would be right now, so shortly after the financial crisis?

      It’s too long of a window and too many things happen domestically and globally for an accurate prediction to be possible. My advice would simply be to enjoy your house and don’t miss those mortgage payments and in 7 years I get the feeling that you’ll be perfectly alright.

  32. Hi Mike,

    Loved your prediction looks positive. I own a home in Mississauga and bought a new house in Brampton during starting of April ,2017 without bidding went for Pre-emptive for 1.425. We are in the process of selling our link detached house. We did not receive any bidding offers on the bidding day. We listed for 799K and expected around 880K which is how the market is. Thanks.

    1. Hi JJ,

      Your story isn’t the only one of people surprised they aren’t receiving multiple offers on their home. Buyers are taking a pause to see the effects of the new rules. In the long-term, I don’t think it will really affect anything, but in the short term some sellers are going to be caught by surprise.

  33. Hi Mike..

    Thanks a lot for your reply!
    I know no one can predict what will happen in 7 years from now..

    Currently I am in a situation where I already signed agreement to purchase a bigger house mentioned in above post , and now when it’s my turn to sell my townhouse, the market is suddenly cooled off!! (Kathleen wynn’s announcement for foreign buyer tax causing shock in market)

    My realtor is saying I might not be getting the expected price for my house. This will have great impact on my finances.

    As of now I am really caught in worse scenario as when I bought the house unconditionally, it was sellers market with multiple offers with deposit checks ready for sellers!

    I am so stressed out now and unsure of the situation

    Any advice will help me understand this little better!

    Thanks a ton in advance!

    Madhura

    1. Hi Madhura,

      I can understand it’s a very stressful situation, but you’ll have to differ to your chosen real estate representative on this one as to why they can obtain what you believe is market value for the home. Unfortunately, markets can change on a whim and they often pause when major news breaks like it did with Wynne’s announcement. I suspect it will be a temporary pause and buyers will be back in droves once things settle a bit and people realize that the market hasn’t come back 100%.

      Unfortunately, you may have just got caught at the wrong time in regards to the announcement. Hopefully you have a long closing date to try and continue to sell for as much as possible to help with the finances. Good luck!

  34. Hi Mike,
    Your blog is highly informative and provides very good insights.
    I have a semi detached home in Mississauga in Lisgar area. We secured 2nd mortgage recently and will be moving to newly purchased home in London, Ontario by mid July. Just confused should I sell Mississauga home or rent it for couple of years and keep building equity on this property. If 2017 is the right year to sell then should I list my home now or list it by end of July after moving to London ?
    I can manage 2 parallel mortgage payments for couple of months.
    Please advise.

    1. First, congratulations on the new home. You will do well on your home in Lisgar whenever you sell it, just know that.

      When to sell is totally up to you. In my opinion, I believe that we have hit a peak of appreciation, and things will begin to settle down and appreciation rates will return to normal over the next year (6-7% instead of 15-30% we’ve seen over the past 4 years).

      With that in mind, I don’t think it’s ever smart to time the market. I think it’s too difficult to do and you will always have regrets one way or the other. The other issue you have to think about is managing a rental from London. You likely will not be able to positively cashflow on a home like that in Mississauga unless you have a low mortgage already or a separate basement apartment. On top of that, any repairs that need to be done or emergency situations are going to have you running back and forth a very long distance.

      I don’t discourage people from becoming landlords, in fact, I encourage it, but it’s important to know the risks and responsibilities. And a long-distance rental is generally like a long-distance relationship…it doesn’t often work out. You could hire someone to manage it or arrange something with a friend/family member as an alternative option.

      If you do decide to rent, I think it should be something that is long-term and not an arbitrary amount of years like two. There’s no way to know what will happen to the market in two years, so you should plan for a much longer term.

      Personally, if you don’t see yourself wanting to be a landlord, then it’s best to sell now before the summer hits. July is a slow time in the market traditionally and this summer will be a bit of an unknown. I’d suggest getting it on the market ASAP if you decide to sell.

  35. hi mike,
    it really great to read your post here. i am currently living in Mississauga and looking for a house to buy around my place. however, i have come across some real state comments and even from friends that housing price is starting to drop here. so i am in dilemma whether to buy a house now or wait a little longer , perhaps a few months?
    your advice is greatly appreciated . thanks…

    1. Hi Rai,

      Housing prices haven’t exactly started to fall. In fact, I think when the prices for next month come out you’ll be looking at at least a 20% increase year over year in May from 2016. There may be a slight decrease from April, and that is significant, as it would be the first time since December 2015 that we’ve seen a decrease in month to month appreciation.

      That will be partly due to the fact that there are many more listings on the market as sellers are looking to cash in as they’re afraid the changes set by the government last month will bring the market down significantly.

      However, we’ve seen this play out in Vancouver before and I believe it will be the same here in Toronto. After a few months of month to month depreciation or flat to minimal growth, the market will begin to tick back up at more “normal” levels of appreciation like we saw in the many years prior to 2013.

      So, if I’m buyer right now, I’m out there looking while there is LOTS of supply. If I’m a seller, I’m holding on if I have no reason to sell until later this year or next Spring.

      So, for yourself, this is the first time in forever that you can go and purchase a home and not necessarily have to worry about multiple offers. My advice is get out there and have a choice at what you want before prices ultimately begin to settle into more normal levels of growth.

      1. hi mike thank you for the critical advice with regards to the market trend. i went around a couple of times looking for houses and noticed the house with listing price dropped in my second visit although not by a large amount. therefore it harbours in my mind that, with friends discussion,, the market seems to be cooling down. anyways thank you once again for your advice.
        cheers!!!

        1. Hi Rai,

          The market is a vast creature and conditions totally depend on numerous factors. While you may have seen a couple of listings not sell and reduce their price, it’s not the same all over Mississauga. I would caution using anecdotal evidence to draw any conclusions.

          First, agents and sellers need to reset their perspective. Not everyone is going to put their house up for sale and get a crazy number in less than a week. Buyers have more to choose from at the moment and the selling side needs to make some adjustments. However, in tons of pockets in Mississauga we’re still seeing strong multiple offers for homes. These homes are generally well-priced, staged, have nice renovations and curb appeal and are in what we consider to be top neighbourhoods.

          Are there going to be 15 offers on a home that hasn’t been updated since the 70s with no effort from either the agent or seller to sell it? No, not at all. However, if we go back to what actually needs to be done to sell a home (and hopefully there’s a purge of terrible agents right now), then sellers can still demand top dollar for their home right now.

          It’s not as black and white as the market is hot or the market is cool. There’s much more to it and every situation is unique. We can look at general trends and I’ll have a full write-up next week when numbers are officially released for May.

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