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3 Predictions For Mississauga Real Estate Market In 2017

3 Predictions for Mississauga Real Estate Market in 2017

The Mississauga real estate market changed significantly in many ways in 2016. So, what predictions for Mississauga real estate are in store for 2017? Let’s take a closer look and answer the age-old question: Should I Buy/Sell this year?

But, first, if you missed the extremely popular prediction post for 2016, please have a look back and see how things turned out!

A Quick Look at the Numbers

As we can see, there are three main trends to take away from last year:

  1. Prices Are Way Up
    The 14.6% Year-to-Date increase INCLUDES condos! Isolating for detached homes alone, the increase has been a whopping 17.7% compared to this time last year (end of November 2015). The average price for a detached home in Mississauga, to date, now stands at $973,190 compared to $826,347 last year.
  2. Sales Are Up
    November 2016 saw a slight drop in sales, but overall the amount of listings sold is up 9.9% on the year. This might seem a bit strange at first as people see the lack of listings on the market causing upward pressure on prices. Well, that’s true, so what’s carrying the bulk of the increase in the number of sales? Condos. Sales are up an incredible 13% year over year as people turn to the condo market as a more affordable alternative.
  3. Active Listings are Down
    There are a couple of reasons for this. First, many people are choosing to stay and renovate their homes with the built-in equity they’ve accrued. And, second, homes are selling quicker due to the lack of inventory. A home that might not have sold in years past is now in huge demand as buyers are just looking to break into the market/neighbourhood. 

 

Now that we have time to reflect on 2016, suffice to say it’s been a crazy year. Home prices have shot up when everyone thought the market would yet again crash. Donald Trump is the President-elect and every beloved celebrity imaginable passed away. 

So, where does that leave us going into 2017?

3 Predictions for Mississauga Real Estate Market in 2017

1) Prices Will Go UP…Again

Yes, I’m sorry to report for some, but prices will be rising again. For those waiting for the market to crash…you’ll be waiting on the sidelines yet again. In fact, get comfortable, as I believe we’ve reached a point of no return in that regard. 

The Mississauga real estate market won’t be coming back to a point where the average household making less than $100K per year can afford a detached home. Those days are behind us. Even in a worst case scenario where home prices fall by let’s say 30%, that only brings us back to 2013 prices which for most was already a point of unaffordability.

Prices Up, But By How Much?

I believe that prices will not rise as sharply as they did in 2016 thanks to some efforts by the federal government (which I will discuss below). Right now, I’m pegging price growth to be in the 9%-11% region. That would bring the average cost of a home in Mississauga (including condos) up from ~$627,500 to $690,500.

2) Mortgage Rule Changes are Coming

There was one minor mortgage rule change in 2015 and one slightly more significant rule change in 2016. The latter, coined the “Stress Test”, is now applied to all high-ratio mortgages (any purchase with less than 20% down). This means that anyone with less than 20% down HAS to qualify at the benchmark interest rate (currently 4.64%) versus just the rate their lender offers them (which could be in the 2.4%-2.6% range).

This latest change I think is a precursor to further, more significant changes coming in 2017. At the end of 2016, TD and RBC both slightly raised their fixed-rate interest rates in what I believe is a foreshadowing to a bigger move to help slow rising prices. 

What exactly will that entail? I’m not sure just yet, but my money would be on a significant downpayment rule change and a further increase in the “Stress Test” applied to any kind of mortgage (including those with more than 20% down). The change might not be easily visible to the public (i.e. internal protocols for lending will tighten), but my feeling is that private lenders are going to be squeezed and banks will be free to slowly but surely modestly increase their rates as private lending competition decreases.

3) There Will No Changes to the Benchmark Interest Rate

At the beginning of December 2016, the Bank of Canada once again left the prime interest rate unchanged at 0.5%. And, in my opinion, they will leave it untouched in 2017.

Why?

There is just far too much uncertainty surrounding the first half of 2017 in terms of Canada’s economy, unemployment, dollar and the potential effects relating to trade with Canada’s biggest trading partner. I think those fears will subside as we get into the latter part of 2017, but by that time it will be a bit too late to significantly change anything. However, October has historically been a time the federal government will test the waters with changes, so I’ll leave that possibility open.

For now though, expect more of the same in terms of the Mississauga real estate market in 2017. That means low inventory, multiple offers and robust price growth. Either way my advice has not wavered in a very long time. If you’re thinking of buying now, don’t put it off. We’re not going backwards anymore. 

Mike Santos

I’m Mike. I created this website. I'm a real estate sales representative, but I’m a consumer behaviourist at heart. I like to understand what makes people tick and find out what’s really important to them. I value honesty and integrity over everything. I’m fiercely competitive and loyal and view myself more as a consultant than salesperson. In my free time I’m a registered sportsaholic and TV junkie.

This Post Has 14 Comments
  1. Hello,
    I have a house value around 950 to 1 M in Mississauga. Many people said that the price will be drop down in year 2017. Is it a best time to sale or not. Please advice.
    Thank you,

    Phong

    1. Hi Phong Tran,

      As you can see in my post, I don’t believe prices are going down at all in 2017. However, the decision to sell mainly centers on what you plan to do next. Are you planning to buy a bigger home? Are you planning to downsize?

      The important thing to keep in mind is that the longer you wait to sell, if you plan to move up, the greater the gap grows between your home and the next one. This could save you tens of thousands of dollars and potentially hundreds depending on when you do eventually decide to sell.

  2. Hi Mike,

    I have detached house in Brampton (value around 700K – 800K). Will it be good idea to sell it now and downsized to Condo then buy the house again in 5 years?

    Regards
    Ricky

    1. Hi Ricky,

      It’s impossible to say what the market will be like in 5 years time, but I very much doubt that you will come ahead by selling now and trying to purchase again in 5 years. By all means, if you want to live in a condo and that matches your lifestyle then I’m all for it, but to simply try and time the market in that way isn’t a wise decision.

      If you have any more specific questions, please feel free to reach out to me at info@gtawestliving.com

  3. Hi Mike
    I’m planning on selling my home. I’ve been told that it worth is around the 1.5 million as of today. I was originally thinking of listing home around April 1st, 2017 but now want to wait another 6 months in order to ready home for sale and hopefully price will continue to increase as the GTA keeps heating up. My question is when do you think would be the next window of opportunity to list home in this price range? Would September be the next window?

    Thank you
    John

    1. Hi John,

      In the current market there really is no window of opportunity. The market has been defined by lack of inventory at all levels and at all times of the year. We are not seeing the big peaks and valleys that we normally associate with real estate seasonality. I believe you can comfortably sell at any point in the year at this point. However, as I always say, it also depends on what you plan to do next. If you’re buying and planning to downsize, it may not make much of a difference, but if you’re planning to upsize then the gap continues to grow every month you wait.

      If you want to chat more about your unique situation please email me at info@gtawestliving.com.

  4. Hi Mike,

    Scary predictions, but pretty reality. I know that reports about this bubble we are in have been swirling since 2010, now that this bubble has reached everywhere into the suburbs (small detached 30 ft wide homes in Pickering going for $800K +, and Semis in Mississauga going for $700K +, etc) I’m feeling more than weary that something has to give when both geographically and housing types have all been put to the brink of unaffordability.

    For myself personally I’m fortunate to have purchased pre-construction back in 2008 and have built up equity. The question i have now is how to use that equity to stay ahead of the game and shield myself from bubbles when i retire or if and when i want to downsize etc. (long-term planning).

    I’ve already purchased one pre-construction condo out west as an investment property, but am looking to purchase another pre-construction condo in Mississauga with all the new developments taking place (that and this is where i want to live down the road as I’ve been here my whole life practically.

    I suppose my question for you is, how inflated are the condos in mississauga, pre construction? We’re at a point where the average condo is selling for about $400-$450/square foot. I don’t want to make an investment on a unit (which new builds typically have very little square footage, only for the bubble to burst, and see the condo (before it even closes) go down in value. I understand you can never time these things, but do you think it is is foolish or unwise to invest in a condo/investment property in 2017, pre-construction? Do you see the condo market being overpriced? I worry that if i wait 2-3 years i could get a steal of a condo for the same price (much more square footage) vs paying $300K-$400K for let’s say 700 square feet.

    1. Hi Phil,

      Thanks for the insightful comment. Like you mentioned, it’s difficult for me to say what’s inflated and what’s not in any segment in the market. Have Mississauga condos exploded in price in the past year? Certainly. Are they overvalued? I don’t know. Are they overvalued in relation to other segments of the market? No. Is the market overvalued in our minds compared to what we’re seeing income and debt-wise? Most likely.

      But, again, it’s impossible to tell you to wait 2-3 years because there will be a market crash and the price of Square One condos will come down with it. I wish I could tell you that with any certainty, but the greatest economic minds and banks in Canada can’t answer that.

      I certainly don’t think it’s foolish to invest in pre-construction condos in Mississauga in 2017. I think pre-construction is a great way to lock in some sense of certainty. You can always sell/assign your unit before it’s completed as one way to help mitigate some risk. However, I would treat pre-construction condos as an investment until the time you’re ready to move in. That means being flexible and ready to move on from it if something were to change in the market.

      1. Thanks Mike!

        Appreciate the quick response and thoughts. I suppose even assigning it at time of move in worries me too if somehow the cost of the condo at the point of closing is too high for someone to even want it “from assignment”.

        Would there be any sense of even possibly selling a home as of today, renting for a year or two or three at worst… and wait to get back into the housing market when things cool off? I just think, one could easily clear the mortgage, generate enough to spend on rent, and still have a huge savings invested/left over to put down on a house in the future, that (if a correction occurs) is probably at least equivalent (size/quality/location) to what we sell, but today but with the added bonus of having your mortgage principal outstanding reduced by let’s say conservatively 100K than what it is today. (example uses a $300K mortgage on a house valued at $1.1 million as per current area latest sale)

        1. Hi Phil,

          That’s really another way of saying “Should I sell now and buy in 2-3 years if the market crashes?”. Unfortunately, I’d have to give you the same answer. I just don’t know if that’s the prudent option. What if the market doesn’t crash and prices merely steady with appreciation rates in the 5-7% range once again? Then you would have lost out on that added appreciation plus you would have been paying rent that doesn’t go towards your mortgage. You could save the difference between mortgage and rent and invest it to make back that 5-7% gain but that’s easier said than done for sure.

          I think it makes a ton of sense to sell now while the market is hot and demand is extremely high. But, I think it only makes sense to do so if you can be happy continuing to rent or you’re planning on moving out of the GTA or immediately downsizing. Also, if you’re looking for a location change for job, schools, etc. A lifestyle reason is always important as well. But strictly from investment/market timing, I just really can’t give the advice to sell now because the market will crash in 2-3 years.

          If you’d like to continue this conversation, I’d be more than happy to. Simply email me at info@gtawestliving.com. Thanks again!

  5. Hi Mike,

    I read your post and it’s defiantly scary. I have a house in Mississauga that is estimated to be $1.4, and I wanted to sell now and maybe rent until the market goes down thinking it must crash at one point. I want to downsize but again save the money different and put it in the downsized home so I can lower my mortgage down. Do you think there is any hope? Also would it then be better not to downsize and stay where I am?

    Thanks

    1. Hi Sam,

      If you have a quick read through the comments here, my advice has been pretty consistent. I think it makes sense to sell now in this kind of market if you’re immediately planning to downsize. If you choose to rent and try to wait out the storm, I would suggest investing a good chunk of the money you have to pay for your rent for the year. Right now the market is certainly on fire like we’ve never seen before and there’s no guarantee it will continue at this kind of pace in the future.

  6. Hi Mike

    I have been following the comments above…your replies to each and everyone of them seems to be quite indirectly answered. It just seems like you have not really answered them…
    You only give stats at the end of each month which of course are datas rounded up after the activities have been done….so not much of an experienced insight on your part as a Real Estate representative advisory. I don’t mean to question your knowledge but it really is frustrating not getting any direct answer, especially to such crazy hysteria market – what to do and what not to do ?? To sell and not to sell…to wait or not to wait… any more direct directions ??

    Regards

    1. Hi Chunlea,

      Welcome back. If you remember, we actually had a private email exchange about this issue back in December. You want to make “the big money”, I get it. You’re looking for someone, anyone, to tell you the exact perfect time to sell. However, I’m not an economist. In fact, I’m glad I’m not because they get labeled as experts despite being entirely wrong about the market for the past 20 years. I write this blog because I love my career and I know there are people out there that are looking to gather opinions on issues like this.

      In regards to your issue with my market updates, data is analyzed based on past events. Look at any major news article and it’s peppered with stats from recent history. Some people, economists specifically, take that information and try to come up with theories about what will happen in the future. But, again, the vast majority of those people have been entirely wrong about the market for the better part of 20 years.

      I’m not an economist or a statistician. I’m not going to produce fancy charts with jaw-dropping or bubble-bursting forecasts. That is out of the realm of my knowledge and you can find that information in many other corners of the Internet.

      I am a local real estate salesperson who likes to write and gets asked the question, almost daily, “what’s going to happen to the market?”. So, I use my experience and knowledge and I read, and read, and I’ve come up with my own theories as to what I believe will happen.

      However, my job is to not tell people with absolute certainty what is going to happen. I can’t do that. I will never, ever do that. In fact, I very directly tell people that every situation is unique and that you shouldn’t ever base your decision to move based solely on market factors.

      Over and over again I say you should move when you want to and when it fits your lifestyle because I truly believe there is no perfect time and you certainly cannot time the market. It’s a fruitless endeavour. This blog does not claim to have a crystal ball. If it did, you should be running the other way because anyone that tells you with any certainty what is going to happen is lying to you. They’re basically just trying to sell you. I will not do that. If people enjoy my writing, think that I am a knowledgeable person in the Mississauga market and want to use my services…then that’s great. I will be very happy to help. However, if you are looking for someone to tell you the exact moment to sell and be 100% right and confident about it, it’s never going to happen.

      I’ll tell you what I told you in December. I think that if you plan to downsize, you can move at any time. If you plan to upsize, you should be moving immediately. I don’t think that any measure the Provincial or Federal government takes is going to affect the market in the long-term. There will likely be a pause while everyone waits to see what’s going to happen, but much like history before us, the market will chug on.

      So, again, here’s the answer to your question:

      You need to make a decision and you need to be accountable for that decision. Whether that’s to stay or go, you need to take the information from various sources and do what you think is best because no one person, regardless of experience or knowledge, knows with absolute certainty and clarity what is going to happen.

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